Food inflation in South Africa is rising. It rose from 12.4% in December 2022 to 13.8% in January 2023, the fastest growth rate in nearly 14 years. Oils, fats, bread, cereals, and processed foods have driven the rise. However, vegetable and fruit prices were a big driver.
In January 2023, prices for fruit climbed by 5.6%, with apples and bananas leading the increase. Meanwhile the prices of vegetables has increased by 4.2% with onions, followed by potatoes and cabbage leading the way. The rise can be blaimed on national rolling blackouts which have become more severe in recent months, hail, and persistent heavy rains in crucial fruit and vegetable-producing regions.
South Africa has been fortunate to receive good rainfall this season. However, some areas received too much and national load shedding has decreased crop yields in traditionally warmer regions facing drought as irrigation remains inadequate.
Hail harmed the output of apples and pears in the Western Cape. At the same time, heavy rainfall in Mpumalanga has significantly delayed lemon harvesting, especially in areas which experienced landslides and significant flooding. In other regions, infrastructure has been destroyed by persistent rain and flooding, the lands remain wet, and more rain is forecast. As a result, harvesting delays remain in some locations, which results in a limited supply to consumers.
Fewer tomatoes are on retail shelves due to a nationwide supply shortage due to excessive rain and hail damage. Load shedding is also impacting those farms that farm hydroponically. The supply shortage has resulted in higher prices.
Since June 2022 prices for vegetables have been rising, but a pattern emerged during the last quarter of 2022. A combination of factors are responsible; the main one being supply tightness. The onion production area in South Africa was reportedly 20% smaller in 2022, resulting in the decreased supply, but demand remained the same. 2023 saw onion prices 51.9% higher year on year or 2.2% month on month.
The extreme rains have also impacted potato prices in South Africa as farmers could not reach their fields to harvest, but data from Potato-SA indicates that supply is now returning. Nonetheless, load shedding will likely continue to impact potato processing, which could pressure potato products.
Regrettably, high prices for some fruit and veggie products might continue for a while longer due to factors negatively affecting production.